So here it is. The Ravens' first round pick and it's up to me. The very (mock) future of my team in my own humble, undeserving hands.
This is hard. No wonder Ozzie Newsome makes the money he makes and is held in such high regard. Picking for the Rams and the Eagles is one thing. I don't care if the Rams ever win another game. And, while I like the Eagles, they are not the team I live and die with every Sunday. This pick means a great deal more to me.
I tried to look at this pick from all angles. I measured need versus best player available. I looked at measurables, intangibles, depth chart, value over replacement player, the whole ball of wax. For a guy with zip experience in actual player assessment, I think I did a rather thorough job. I strongly considered five players for this pick, and because this is my team's only pick in the first round, I'm going to take you through each and every one of them. Or, for those with a limited attention span, you may skip to the bold type at the bottom to find out who the pick is and wait for the next guy to post. Your loss, though. I'm giving you pearls, here.
Ozzie has always preached two fundamental ideologies; "best player available" and "right player, right price". I tried to adhere to these during my evaluation. Ozzie, if you're reading this, I hope I've done you proud.
I think the best player left on the board is Florida State "tweener" DE/LB Everette Brown. Many mock drafts I've seen have him in the top five. Virtually all the rest have him in the top ten. I'm sitting here at #26 and he's still available. In the back of my mind, my biggest fear is he lasts until the Steelers pick and I've got this cat in Flacco's grill for the next eight years. But I can't dwell on that right now. While Brown is the best player, he's too small to play defensive end in a 3-4 alignment, and I don't have a slot at outside linebacker for him. Especially at the pass rushing OLB, where Terrell Suggs plays. The only way I make this pick is if I think I can use Brown's presence as leverage in Suggs' contract negotiations, but in the mean time, I have to pay this guy first round money to sit behind Suggs and Johnson. I don't think so.
The next guy I looked at was Illinois cornerback Vontae Davis. The Ravens signed Dominique Foxworth and Chris Carr, they already have Frank Walker and Fabian Washington. I don't think corner is a need at this point. Also, is Davis really that great, or is he just head and shoulders above a mediocre pool of secondary talent in this draft? I smell big fish/small pond. I'll pass.
The third guy I considered is the pick everyone wants the Ravens to make. From the University of Maryland, wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. All the experts and all the fans talk about Flacco's big arm and Heyward-Bey's lightning speed. "Vertical offense!" "Bombs away, baby!" The kid ran a dazzling 40 at the Combine. His Pro Day was sensational. He's big, he's fast, yadda yadda yadda. Well, I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid.
I admit, I'm biased against first round receivers. I don't think enough of them pan out to be worth the risk. I've got plenty of examples to back me up.
Desmond Howard
Micheal Westbrook
Yatil Green
Reidel Anthony
Marcus Nash
Kevin Dyson
Troy Edwards
R. Jay Soward
Peter Warrick
Travis Taylor
Sylvester Morris
Freddie Mitchell
Rod Gardner
Koren Robinson
David Terrell
Ashley Lelie
Charles Rogers
Rashaun Woods
Michael Clayton
Matt Jones
Mike Williams
Troy Williamson
And this doesn't even include guys like Curtis Conway and Donte Stallworth, who were productive, solid contributors but hardly mind-blowing difference makers. Pick a receiver in round one? Hell no. Let somebody else take the risk. If they pan out, great. I'll call their agent when they hit the market in six years and I know what I'm paying for.
Here's a little sample of what's being said about Mr. Heyward-Bey that's not so flattering.
"Lacks productive college resume."--- fftoolbox.com
"Is inconsistent catching the ball and does not have great natural hands...Questionable instincts and awareness...Still very raw as a route runner...Not much wiggle and won't make people miss...Doesn't break a lot of tackles...Average strength...Marginal blocker...Has little or no special teams experience...Wasn't real productive..Workout Warrior?"--- draftcountdown.com
"Still learning the position, he needs more time playing. He was a track guy playing football..."--- footballsfuture.com
"Football Sense: Heyward-Bey lacks the natural instincts and feel on the field and tends to lose his focus quite a bit, especially when not involved in the play. He is not a physical receiver, despite his size and needs to show more courage going for the ball in a crowd. There are times where he just lacks alertness to coverages, running right into traffic. He needs a few reps before he can retain plays and needs to do a much better job of showing that he has the ability to adjust to the defense. He is quick to come back for the ball, but must do a better job of adjusting his routes when the quarterback is pressured. GRADE: 5.3
Competitiveness: Heyward-Bey lacks the strength to defeat a strong jam and is the type who shies away from going over the middle for the ball. He has very good timing and extension to compete for the pass at its high point, but is the type who will flinch going for the ball in a crowd. He also is a liability as a blocker, lacking the desire or punch to face up to his opponent. The staff says he is a good competitor, but he needs to show better urgency getting underneath the throws. GRADE: 5.6
Ball Concentration: Heyward-Bey is not a fearless receiver, showing too much inconsistency battling for balls in a crowd. Working over the middle, he tends to hear defenders' feet and will give marginal effort, short arming rather than extending for the ball (does not like contact). He needs to develop a better feel for the ball in flight. He shows the ability to adjust and get in position to snatch the long ball over his outside shoulder without having to throttle down. He is also effective at working the sidelines and keeping his feet in bounds. Going over the middle, he looks affected by close coverage too much and seems to be too aware of traffic. He does a much better job of adjusting to deep coverage and getting open to settle on deep throws than he can going over the middle. GRADE: 5.6
Blocking Ability: In the second level, Heyward-Bey is adequate at taking angles and executing the crack block. But, at the line of scrimmage, due to a lack of strength and urgency he will just pester and mirror when blocking in-line. It is rare to see him face up working in the trenches, as he lacks the violent hand punch to stalk and shock. GRADE: 5.3
Compares To:
ASHLEY LELIE, Oakland -- Heyward-Bey has exceptional quickness, but there is a lot of inconsistency in his play. Yes, he is a dangerous deep threat, but you have to question his courage going for the ball in traffic. He has natural hands, but tends to hear the feet of defenders too much, double-clutching too often when working in tight areas. He became the Combine darling, but appears to be more of an athlete than football player. Those types are more bust than boom, but look for him to be drafted much earlier based on his athleticism than production."
--- cbssports.com
"Weaknesses: Mediocre collegiate production ... Lacks serious experience ... Did not have many big games ... Inconsistent hands; not soft ... Raw route runner; production mostly out of screens and crossing routes ... Not much effort into blocking ... A project and will take 3-4 years before ready to be a starter ... Extremely difficult evaluation."
--- walterfootball.com
Friends, readers, football fans; I come to bury Heyward-Bey, not to praise him. And certainly not to waste a first round pick on a guy that compares favorably to another guy some other team already wasted a first round pick on.
Now that I had summarily dispatched the experts' candidate, I looked at Ole Miss defensive tackle Peria Jerry. Jerry is ranked in the middle of the first round by most mock drafts. Reading the reports, I don't think he's big enough to play defensive line in a 3-4 and not fast enough to play OLB. And I run into the same problem that I did with Brown. I don't need another exterior linebacker.
Here's another little tidbit on Jerry from draftcountdown.com:
"Weaknesses: Does not have great size or bulk...Frame is awfully close to being maxed out...Not very strong or powerful...Isn't real stout at the point of attack...Has to be more consistent with his leverage...Can get pushed around in the run game...Struggled in the classroom and intelligence may be an issue...Older than the average prospect...Will not be a good fit for every team...Has some major durability concerns."
Friends, the Ravens only make their defense LOOK easy. If this guy is going to have trouble picking up the system, I don't have time to explain it to him over and over again. The NFL is not remedial reading during summer school. I'm not spending this pick on a guy who comes to camp in August and that might still not grasp what we're trying to do when November rolls around. And after the Dan Cody fiasco, I'm not taking anybody with injury issues.
My evaluation of Jerry proved fruitful, though, as I became intrigued by the idea of drafting someone that could play defensive end for the Ravens. Trevor Pryce will be thirty-four when the season kicks off and he has well-documented interests beyond football. While I'm not trying to push him out the door, I'd like to be prepared for when he decides to exit. Besides, I get a kid in here now, he can learn from Trevor and spell the veteran to keep him fresher as the season goes on and players begin to wear down.
The player I discovered that I believe fits this mold is San Jose State defensive tackle Jarron Gilbert.
Physically, Gilbert is nearly a mirror image of Trevor Pryce. Pryce is listed at 6'5", 290. Gilbert measures 6'5", 288. Among the top ten prospects at his position, Gilbert ran the fastest 40 (4.87 seconds). To be balanced, I am going to give you this guy's strengths and weaknesses from draftcountdown.com.
"Strengths: Good size with a large frame and long arms...Very athletic...Extremely quick...Terrific natural strength and power...Big, strong hands...Nice balance and agility...Is able to penetrate and make plays in the backfield...Decent range and pursues well...Smart with good instincts and awareness...Offers positional and schematic versatility...Reliable tackler...Decent production...Is still improving and has a lot of upside.
Weaknesses:Inconsistent...Bit of a classic 'tweener...Needs to be more physical and aggressive...Doesn't use his hands well...Has some trouble shedding blocks...Needs to use better leverage...Not a great technician...Motor runs hot and cold...Immature ?...Did not always face elite competition."
Consider, for a moment, the Ravens defense. Their system is all about quickness, power, penetration, pursuit, awareness, and sound, fundamental tackling. Everything this guy does well. And schematic versatility means that new defesnive coordinator Greg Mattison can continue to use Rex Ryan's penchant for moving guys all over the box to confuse offenses.
Let's look at his weaknesses:
Inconsistency --- On that defense, this isn't going to last long. They said the same thing about Haloti Ngata when he was drafted and you see how that turned out.
Bit of a classic 'tweener --- So was Peter Boulware. So was Terrell Suggs. So was Trevor Pryce. The Ravens have been making pro-bowlers out of 'tweeners for more than a decade. I see no problem here.
Needs to be more physical and aggressive --- When you're playing beside Kelly Gregg, got Ray Lewis barking at you, and a huge right tackle trying to maul you, aggressivness and physicality will not be issues. It's called survival instinct.
Doesn't use his hands well --- Totally coachable. They said the same thing about a guy named Warren Sapp. He'll learn.
Has some trouble shedding blocks --- We're in a 3-4. We don't want him shedding blocks. We want him occupying blockers so Suggs and Lewis can fly to the ball. With his quickness, Gilbert will overwhelm blockers, putting pressure on them to grapple him and force them to ignore the linebackers. And if they slip up, this guy has the explosiveness to pressure the quartback himself.
Needs to use better leverage --- Kelly Gregg will teach this kid everything there is to know about leverage. Again, he'll learn. It all goes back to the "smart, with good instincts and awareness".
Not a great technician --- That's what we pay coaches for. If players had flawless technique coming out of college, the owners wouldn't employ pro coaches.
Motor runs hot and cold --- Goes back to peer thing. This pack of purple-clad attack dogs will not allow a rookie to take plays off. He'll assimilate. Resistance is futile.
Immature? --- See, even the scout isn't sure of this. And he's a KID!! I was immature at 22. Hell, I was immature at 32!! Hugh Hefner's immature at 82, and he's doing pretty damn fine.
Did not always face elite competition --- Neither do the Ravens. We've got the Bengals and Browns each twice a year. This is more a knock on his school than him. Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State. Do you think he was being covered by Deion Sanders every Saturday?
The other thing I like, actually LOVE, about this pick is that it pisses off all the right people. First, it irks the know-it-all call-in show crowd. You know, those guys from Dundalk and Arbutus that constantly call Scott Garceau and Anita Marks, saying "um" every other word, and think they know more about football than Pete Rozelle? Those clowns make up a large percentage of the Heyward-Bey crowd. Let them fester.
Rex Ryan personally ran Gilbert's pro day workout himself. I got this from nfldraftscout.com.
"Gilbert was the most impressive of the bunch, turning in a 4.76 40-yard dash at 6-5, 284 pounds. He also improved upon his already impressive Combine performances in the broad jump (10'7"), vertical (37"), short shuttle (4.40) and 3-cone (7.59). Typically, the collegiate coaches or scouts will put the players through the workouts. This workout was different, however, as Ryan took over the DL drills and worked Gilbert especially hard. Gilbert would seem to be a perfect fit in the Jets' 3-4 scheme at defensive end."
If he fits for the Jets, then by golly he'll be a great fit for us. And if drafting Gilbert tweaks Rex a little, even better. Nothing wrong with a little gamesmanship within the draft. The same website goes on to comment, "The Jets will have plenty of competition in landing Gilbert's services, however, as he's lined up several private workouts already, including: Detroit, Dallas, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, San Diego, and Atlanta."
Now, obviously, the Lions aren't thinking of taking Gilbert first overall (at least I hope not. With their track record, I'm surprised it's not going to be Heyward-Bey), but Pittsburgh drafts 32nd, and with that much interest, they have to know Gilbert won't be there when their second round choice comes up. As the Ravens, if I can filch someone out from under the Steelers that fits my system and theirs to a "T", I'm totally doing it.
And so, with the 26th pick of the TitB Mock Draft, the Baltimore Ravens take great pride in (and secretly relish, in a Machiavellian way) selecting defensive tackle
Jarron Gilbert from San Jose State University.
